To Ponder

To take a breath takes will until it is second nature.

To take a step takes believing until you can run.

To be married means that life is about two being one.

To have a child is to love deeper than you thought possible.

To live a life and to finish strong takes flat out courage.

Do you have the will to believe that life is about courageous love.

What is your life about?

"..the greatest of all of these being love." "God is love."

Z.

Word, Term or Phrase of the Week

back·ward·a·tion [bak-wer-dey-shuhn] - This is a theory developed in respect to the price of a futures contract and the contract's time to expire. Backwardation says that as the contract approaches expiration, the futures contract will trade at a higher price compared to when the contract was further away from expiration. This is said to occur due to the convenience yield being higher than the prevailing risk free rate.

Also note, this is the opposite of a contango. Contango is not a dance or a orange flavored drink.

Would you pass me the contango please? Regards

* Some of the information provided here in was found at Investopedia.com, which I find to be a very informative and extremely entertaining website. I actually prefer it to cartoons on Saturday morning.

Pick of the Week: Big Apple 'Copter Co.

I have to write about this company because everytime I think about it, it gives me chills how great of an idea it is. I said idea, not company.

The company is US Helicopters (USHP.OB) based in New York, NY. They operate a current fleet of * Sikorsky twin engine S-76 helicopters providing scheduled metro-hop flights from the East 34th Street Heliport, and Midtown Manhattan Heliport to both JFK and Newark Airports.

All officers of the company have strong share ownership and have exercised little if any of their options since it's founding in 2003. They continue to operate in the red with a -183% return on assets, with a market cap of 35.45Mil, and a Price/Sales ratio of 31.60. Shares have been changing hands in the range of $.60 - $3.50 per share in the last 52 weeks. With 1.04Mil of cash on the books, it leaves $.029 of cash per share, and shares currently are trading at $1.00 per share.

So why do I think this is a great company? It takes an hour to an hour and a half to get to the airport from Manhattan in a taxi or limo. In a helicopter it takes 8 minutes, and you get to go through TSA security clearance at the heliport and avoid the lines at the airport. With record bonuses being handed out in New York, and the continued growth of the financial industry, there is a lot of money around and people have to be a lot of places fast. This is a company in it's startup phases with a solid management team experienced in aviation and building companies.

The numbers are not in their favor currently, and there may be a bit of turbulence between here and there, but the idea and framework looks good from here.

Ultimately you have to make the call.

* This blog is intended only for entertainment purposes. I do own shares of USHP.OB and work in the aviation industry.

Word, Term or Phrase of the Week

con·ta·gion [kuhn-tey-juhn]: The likelihood of significant economic changes in one country spreading to other countries. This can refer to either economic booms or economic crises.

Example: An infamous example is the "Asian Contagion" that occurred in 1997 and started in Thailand. The economic crisis in Thailand spread to bordering southeast Asian countries and then eventually spilled over to Latin America.

As briefed in the Wall Street Journal today, this could also be a term used if subprime mortgage lending defaults result in a rise of the Japanese Yen and cause a continued unwinding of the "carry-trade" causing the liquidation of capital dispersed in world markets.

Contagion. And good day.

Z.

What is a ....?

What is a small not initially yet potentially international, multi-faceted, high margin, low overhead business model positioned in a small niche yet growing industry that requires low start up costs, with services or processes that if needed can be outsourced, while maintaining and protecting it's intellectual property and position in the marketplace?

Z.

To Eat or to Drive that is the Question!

So here is something to chew on, literally. We all know the cost of gas continues to rise, and with the summer season around the corner I don't think we will see that happening anytime soon. So as most of us have heard, one of the solutions is increasing the production of ethanol which stateside is most commonly derived from corn (Brazil produces ethanol using genetically altered sugar cane due to a government subsidized program started in the 1970's. Don't tell me they didn't see this one coming. Why do you think Bush is trying to partner with them in ethanol production. Carnival is not the only thing Brazil has to offer). Corn for the most part in America has been used for consumption by people or animals, then animals by people, so in the end mostly by people.

Now According to the Associate Press (AP) the demand for corn being used in ethanol production is driving up the cost of corn used in farming and food production. To no surprise, this in turn drives up the cost of feed, and then the cost of meat production, which then gets passed right on back to us the consumer. So in the midst of us trying to quench our petroleum thirst, we are slowly starving ourselves of meat not to mention that big happy bowl of corn flakes in the morning. So now it is going to be expensive to drive, expensive to eat, and expensive to have fun.

This is not a happy blog. No Sir. But leaves you with something to think about.

Believe, me I like driving my car to the store to buy a nice big steak, only to come home and cook it on the gas grill.

Maybe I should just buy a bicycle and a cow. Maybe a couple of chickens.

Pick of the Week: Speculating on the Local Mall Rollercoaster

Unless you have been living under a rock the past 6 months you have seen these things and like me were initially mystified. Most frequently sighted at a local mall or your favorite pizza parlor, these are definately not like the kicks I had when growing up. You know the kind constructed out of a sole, an upper and if you were well advanced and capable a set of fresh laces. These sweet kicks are called Heelys (HLYS), they do not sport any air, a window on the side, or even a pump on top. Nope, far greater a wheel on the bottom that enables any kid that dons them to more or less float and glide across the malls of America. Leaving people like myself speachless thinking "why do they get all the cool stuff", all I had was a pile of dirt, the garden hose and if I got extra lucky a shovel and bucket. Yes the joys of playing with mud.

So what am I driving at. Heelys listed on the Nasdaq, has had a 52 wk range of $30.00 - $40.09, and as of today a current price of $30.48. It holds a P/E of 40.42, P/S of 6.50 and has had a 200 day moving average of $34.47. Net Sales Increased 328% to $188.2 million compared to $44.0 million in fiscal 2005, due to increased awareness and marketing efforts paying off. What does all this mean? Due to the price being near the bottom of the 52 wk spectrum and 12% below the 200 day m.a. there could be a buying opportunity on the horizon. With the recent sell off in the overall market, and a 23% decline in the share price, in the midst of all the volatility in the market, and this being a one product company, I may stay on the side line for a bit until we see some stabilization.

So then where do we go? With all of this being said there are a couple of things working here; 1) We just came off of a holiday season when this was a hot gift amongst the kids which contributed to the large jump in 4th Quarter earnings, 2) Spring is around the corner which could provide for a lift in earnings due to the weakening of the parental wallet caused by kids phrasing "Bobby has a pair mom, why can't I?" 3) Although there were significant sales in the 4th Quarter, I dont think the overall market has reached it's max capacity for Healys, and 4) The shelf life should sustain through most of '07, but look for increased inventories and the movement of product to the sales rack and outlet stores. When this happens the party is already half over, so finish your cake and don't be the last one out the door.

If you are willing to ride a bit of a 'coaster, this may be a buy at the approaching bottom, ride it to the top of the hill only to sell, and move to a short position as this one product company implodes on itself as the market reaches saturation, inventories increase, and Bobby and his friends find the newest latest and greatest fad band wagon to jump on. People the kids of America are bruttle on these companies, this is only the beginning of another Sparkle and Fade company. What ever happened to the Pogo Ball anyways?

*I own no stock in the company mentioned herein, and all information provided is for your own discernment.

Watch out world here he comes...

...Of all of these I am the worst...

I am officially and unofficially, whether here or there, the worst blogger in the universe, which according to science seems to be expanding by the second (I have absolutely no scientific data or reference to back up this statement, and if you care so much and feel so inclined to check whether it is true or not, please drop me a note to keep me informed. thanks).

I had no idea when I set out to be the blogger I aspire to be that the lifestyle was so difficult. There is the audience, the non-stop pressure of the mucky-mucks, the deadlines, the paparazzi and the continued creativity that one must reinvent daily to provide for the small yet faithful following of Z Blogged the material that you all so deserve.

So all that being said, I will fight on and Z will continue to blog. No more helicopter conventions, no more family walks, no more day trips, and especially no more fun until Z has blogged the blog.

On that note, I am going to have some fun on a walk. Maybe I will see if the family is around.

Z.